COMEX Insights
Delivery activity, COT positioning, and institutional analysis
Delivery Activity
Monthly Volume Comparison
Delivery volume trend — Is this month bullish or bearish?
Institutional Flow — MTD Cumulative
Firm-level breakdown for March 2026
Delivery Pace — Cumulative MTD
Running total of contracts delivered each day of the month
Delivery Volume
Monthly totals for past months, daily breakdown for the current month
Today's Delivery Notices — Raw Data
Issued = Selling physical metal | Stopped = Buying physical metal
Smart Money Tracker
Cumulative firm positions over time — who is consistently accumulating vs distributing physical metal
Top Accumulators (Net Buyers)
Top Distributors (Net Sellers)
Vault Inventory
COT Positioning
How to Use This Data for Trading Decisions
Delivery Notices — Physical Metal Flow
COMEX futures contracts allow for physical delivery. When someone "stops" metal, they are RECEIVING physical gold/silver. When they "issue," they are DELIVERING metal. This shows real physical demand vs paper trading.
• Value: 50,000 oz × $2,800 = $140 million
• Physical metal now moves from COMEX vault to their account
- • MTD pace higher than previous months
- • House accounts (H) are top stoppers
- • Single firm dominates stopping (>25%)
- • Delivery surge during price dips
- • MTD pace below historical average
- • Customer accounts (C) issuing heavily
- • Deliveries dry up during price rallies
- • Net issuance exceeds stops
C vs H Accounts — Who Is Accumulating?
The bank/broker's own money. When HSBC or JPMorgan stops on House account, they're accumulating metal for themselves — a strong signal of institutional conviction.
Client money (hedge funds, ETFs, high-net-worth). Shows what the bank's clients want. Customer stopping can indicate broader institutional demand beyond just the bank.
Vault Inventory — Physical Supply Signals
COMEX-approved vaults hold physical metal in two categories. Registered metal has warrants filed and sits in the deliverable pool — when a futures contract goes to delivery, warrants from this pool get assigned. Eligible metal is real, verified physical metal in the same vaults but without warrants — it can be withdrawn, converted to Registered (by filing warrants), or left stored. Both are real bars; the difference is warrant/delivery status. The data is reported per vault operator (Brink's, HSBC, JPM, etc.), not per metal owner.
- • Registered: Warranted metal in the deliverable pool. If this drops, fewer bars can settle futures — tighter supply.
- • Eligible: Real metal stored without warrants — not in the delivery pool. Rising eligible means owners are keeping metal in vaults but not making it deliverable.
- • Reg/Total Ratio: The percentage of vault metal that is deliverable. A falling ratio means supply is tightening relative to total holdings.
- • Daily Net Change: Metal flowing in or out of the vault system each day. Sustained outflows = metal leaving COMEX.
- • Registered falling (less deliverable metal)
- • Reg/Total ratio declining over weeks
- • Sustained daily outflows from vaults
- • One vault draining rapidly (squeeze risk)
- • Eligible rising while Registered falls (hoarding)
- • Registered rising (more metal available)
- • Reg/Total ratio increasing over weeks
- • Sustained daily inflows to vaults
- • Metal spreading evenly across vaults
- • Total inventory growing steadily
COT Report — Futures Positioning
The CFTC publishes weekly data showing how different trader groups are positioned. This is a contrarian indicator — extremes often precede reversals.
Hedge funds, CTAs, trend-followers. They chase momentum and are usually WRONG at extremes.
Gold miners, refiners, jewelers. They hedge their business exposure — usually the "smart money."
- • Speculator NET LONG >30% of OI: Market is crowded — be cautious on new longs
- • Speculator NET SHORT or near zero: Contrarian BUY — pessimism is maxed out
- • Rising OI + Rising Price: New money entering longs — bullish
- • Falling OI + Rising Price: Short covering rally — may not last
- • Falling OI + Falling Price: Longs liquidating — bearish until OI stabilizes
Quick Signal Reference Matrix
Combined analysis of Speculator OI%, Hedger OI%, and 7-day Price Change:
| Signal | Spec OI% | Hedger OI% | Price Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| STRONG BULL | < 15% | < 25% | > +3% |
| MODERATE BULL | 15-25% | 25-35% | > 0% |
| MILD BULL | 10-20% | 20-35% | -2% to +3% |
| TREND CONTINUE | 25-35% | 30-40% | > +2% |
| CAUTION | > 30% | > 40% | Any |
| MILD BEAR | 20-30% ↓ | 30-40% | -2% to -5% |
| BEAR | Was high, falling | Falling | < -5% |
| CONTRARIAN BUY | < 5% or neg | < 20% | Stabilizing |
Combining Delivery + COT for Trade Ideas
- • Speculators NET SHORT or lightly long (<15% OI)
- • Hedgers at light levels (<25% OI)
- • Delivery pace accelerating vs prior month
- • House accounts dominating stops
- • Price rising >3% with OI rising
- • Speculators extremely NET LONG (>30% OI)
- • Hedgers heavily short (>40% OI)
- • Delivery pace slowing despite high prices
- • Customer accounts issuing (delivering out)
- • Open interest falling while price rises
Data Sources & Timing
- • Source: CME Group Issues & Stops Report
- • Published: Daily at 9:00 AM ET
- • Our update: 9:30 AM ET (Mon-Fri)
- • Covers: Previous day's delivery intentions
- • Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders
- • Published: Friday at 3:30 PM ET
- • Our update: Friday at 4:30 PM ET
- • Data as of: Prior Tuesday (3-day lag)
Disclaimer: This data is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk. Past positioning patterns do not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.